The final quarter of 2023 saw markets firm on a soft landing outcome, with a rally in equities and a pricing of interest rate cuts in 2024. Disinflationary forces have seen Central Banks make remarkable progress in returning inflation back towards target. Might this be the goldilocks outcome Central Bankers hoped for and #markets thought impossible just 12 months ago?
This Quarterly discusses the two competing economic scenarios and the key data points that help inform our views on the outlook for 2024. We finish off with a run down on investment positioning, pockets of potential value and our favourite graph from 2023.
#Investment #markets appear caught at an #inflection point. Tight #labourmarkets point to continued #economic progress and a chance at sticking the fabled soft-landing. Other data, in particular household consumption, speaks to the possibility of #recession.
This quarterly we also dig into #China's changing economic paradigm and touch on the scope for attractive vintage years in #privateequity.
As attention spans shorten, we feel there is value in writing and reading something of substance, if only once a quarter (and if of questionable substance)! Chance this #quarterly over your next #coffee break.
It seems we are nearing the end of the interest rate tightening cycle, with the RBA keeping things on hold, the Fed having slowed its rate of tightening, and the RBNZ expected to have put through their final super-sized rate hike.
Widespread weakness can be seen in the US banking sector. A deposit rate paradox has emerged, where raising deposit rates leads to a reduction in net interest margins, causing banks to operate at a loss. While leaving deposit rates near zero increases the likelihood that depositors withdraw their capital.
The rapidly changed interest rate environment now rewards a more traditional mix of bonds and equities, which deliver diversified return characteristics for the first time in some years.
Seemingly temporary #inflation pressures have morphed into structural inflation, driven by a shortage of housing and workers. This has resulted in higher #interestrate expectations and being hugely disruptive to #markets.
#CentralBanks are slamming on the brakes. Where the Fed goes, the world follows, sometimes unwillingly. The sharp change in central bank policy settings has been a catalyst for a decline across all #assetclasses.
Could 2022 be the year market psychology transitions from flawless to hopeless? Find out in the #SnowgumQuarterly.
This Quarterly edition from Snowgum Financial Services provides you with an eight minute summary of matters to do with the economy, investing and markets.
Our quarter one economic and investment update does the silliest thing in finance... makes predictions about the future of certain industry. A light read touching on a variety of topics and hopefully making you excited to be an investor.
When young, how well you save is more important than how well you invest. Only once you accumulate scale in assets, that investment decisions become progressively more important. We run the numbers in a tongue in cheek case study.
Our quarterly snapshot of key economic, investment and sector themes. Three stock to watch and a BREXIT special update. We also look at two of Snowgum's latest policy submissions.
