This quarterly unpacks:
What has been 'lost in transmission' this tightening cycle.
Recent inflation pressures in the US and Australia.
Labour market trends with a focus on job vacancies.
The common themes we hear in support of the soft-landing consensus narrative, and why we find them unconvincing.
The increasing risk of a hard landing in late 2024 or early 2025.
Investment positioning.
Please reach out with any comments or questions.
Warm regards,
Matt Vickers